Start a telecom outlook by saying 'businesses will need to adapt' and you're stating the obvious. It is a clichéd and well-worn phrase, not because the industry lacks imagination, but because it remains fundamentally true.
55% of global TMT CEOs believe their companies won't survive another decade on their current path.
What makes 2026 different is not the presence of change, but its convergence and acceleration. Rising consumer expectations, tighter regulations, global connectivity demands, device-led disruptions, are no longer emerging trends. They are colliding. As a result, telecom leaders must move beyond reactive responses and build proactive strategies that create agility across a broader and more complex set of challenges than ever before.
No matter where a business sits within the telecom ecosystem, success in 2026 will be intrinsically linked with how effectively it addresses four interconnected pressures:
eSIM adoption continues accelerating globally, crossing 5 % global device penetration. Travelers and device makers are embracing embedded connectivity, especially as Apple and Google push eSIM‑only devices and China expands support. And analyst forecasts suggest 2026 will mark the point where eSIM adoption moves from early scale to mainstream execution pressure for CSPs.
With this in mind, we have focused our 2026 outlook on the eSIM opportunities across the four categories that should be at the forefront of MNO and CSP minds.
In 2026, digital transformation in telecoms is an operational necessity.
The majority of next-gen technologies, from AI to IoT, have one significant thing in common. They are data-, and by extension, connectivity-hungry. While this has been true for several years, the scale expected to come online in 2026 places unprecedented strain on legacy provisioning and lifecycle management models.
As embedded connectivity becomes standard within devices, eSIM technology fundamentally alters how connectivity is provisioned, managed, and optimized. It enables fully digital lifecycle management, allowing connectivity to function more like a cloud service than a physical product. This decoupling from physical SIM logistics introduces flexibility, scalability, and speed - capabilities that are increasingly non-negotiable in a world fueled by data.
Industry Insight: 4.9 billion cellular connections will use eSIMs by 2030, rising from 1.2 billion in 2025 according to Juniper Research. This underscores the need for connectivity providers to prepare for the impact of the eSIM boom on their business models.
2026 represents a pivotal year for operator business models.
The number of connected IoT devices is expected to grow by 14% in 2025, reaching 39 billion in 2030. However, as volumes accelerate into 2026, operators whose models remain anchored in legacy connectivity risk being pushed into low-margin wholesale roles, while hyperscalers, OEMs, and digital brands eat into their market share.
“As third parties increasingly integrate themselves in the telecoms sphere, it will be pivotal in 2026 that operators launch their own travel eSIM services to compete and retain as much revenue as possible from mobile roaming.”
- Molly Gatford (Juniper Research)
With connectivity increasingly embedded at the point of manufacture, eSIM creates an opportunity for operators to reclaim relevance. As long as they can deliver insight, control, and global reach.
Industry Insight: According to Kaleido Intelligence, 70% of IoT Service Providers fall short of offering their customers full visibility into network activity. This highlights the potential strength of embedded connectivity to give deeper insights into IoT devices.
As core connectivity margins continue to tighten, 2026 is shaping up as a decisive year for diversification strategies.
Nearly 40% of CEOs report that their companies have entered new sectors in the past five years, but analysts increasingly point to 2026 as the time when these bets must begin delivering material returns. The biggest gains go to communications players who think creatively about possibilities in vertical markets. From the medical sector’s management of connected health devices to growing demand for eSIMs in the travel sector, the scope of growth is broad.
“We’re no longer just selling connectivity… instead, we’re building platforms others can innovate on – entertainment, fintech, AI, cloud, you name it.”
– Hatem Dowidar, Group CEO, e&
Working with vertical markets offers a dual advantage: expanding addressable markets while enabling CSPs to defend margins by delivering value-added services that go beyond access alone.
Industry Insight: 88% of enterprises already use IoT as part of their digital transformation, based on a GSMA Intelligence survey that gathered insights from nearly 4,200 enterprises across 21 countries and 10 vertical sectors.
-> Read more about the vertical opportunities with eSIMs here
By 2026, seamless global connectivity is no longer a differentiator, it is the baseline.
Consumers now demand exceptional customer experiences built on high functionality and self-service options. Fail to go above and beyond this offering, and the risk of customer churn increases sharply.
Industry Insight: According to research from EY, improving customer experience topped the list of strategic concerns for telcos in the next three years, with 83% of leaders citing it as a priority
For operators aiming to thrive in 2026, success will not come from addressing digitalization, disruption, diversification, and differentiation in isolation. The real differentiator will be whether these pressures are treated as short-term challenges or as catalysts to embed digital-first connectivity, agility, and flexibility into the core of the organization.
At Telna, we are working with CSPs and MNOs to support this transition, helping them leverage eSIM technologies for competitive advantage. So, when the inevitable "need to adapt" message arrives in 12 months, they're already ahead.
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